Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions
The Denver Nuggets (9-10) travel to FTX Arena Monday to take on the Miami Heat (13-7). Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Nuggets vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
All eyes will be on this rematch following the C Nikola Jokic ejection and ensuing escalation by F Jimmy Butler coupled with the Jokic brothers' Twitter threat.
Jokic, the league's reigning MVP, helped demolish Miami 113-96 when the teams met Nov. 8.
The Nuggets have been relatively disappointing, ranking 20th in the NBA in net rating (minus-1.1). Denver has the league's second-worst ATS record at 7-12.
The Heat are 13-7 ATS, the fourth-best in the league and also have the fourth-best defensive rating and fourth-best net rating (plus-6.1). Miami is currently second in the Eastern Conference.
Nuggets at Heat odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Nuggets +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Heat -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Nuggets +7.5 (-122) | Heat -7.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Nuggets at Heat key injuries
- C Nikola Jokic (wrist) questionable
- G Jamal Murray (knee) out
- F Michael Porter Jr. (back) out
- F Jimmy Butler (tail bone) questionable
- G Tyler Herro (body soreness) questionable
- G Victor Oladipo (knee) out
- F Markieff Morris (neck) out
Nuggets at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions
Heat 112, Nuggets 101
PASS on the money line. The Nuggets were in the Western Conference Semifinals a year ago and have talent at all levels, making Miami's -340 too risky, especially for a regular-season game.
Denver could be without Jokic and will be without Murray and Porter Jr., and regardless, the Heat will be ready and likely view this as a revenge game which makes the +260 on Denver a bad value as well.
BET on the HEAT -7.5 (-102) as they've been the far better team this season. It also seems like Herro and Butler are more likely to play than Jokic.
With two of Denver's best three players out, if Jokic sits, the Nuggets will be in big trouble. The Heat already have the fourth-best defensive rating and they thrive off offensive rebounds as well.
While Denver should be able to limit those (6th best defensive rebounding rate), it shouldn't matter as Miami ranks sixth in true shooting rate. Center Bam Adebayo will be the real difference-maker and should feast if Jokic misses.
The All-NBA defender should also limit the MVP if Jokic does play. Miami has the greater upside regardless and should want to put a beating on Jokic and the Nuggets after their first meeting.
"LEAN" to the OVER 208.5 (-112) as the better side.
Denver has still hit 105 points twice despite Jokic not playing in its last four games, and it's hit triple digits three times. Their opponents in those four games haven't scored fewer than 114 points. Jokic is key on both ends of the court.
Denver is the 15th worst defensive team in the NBA and they drop to 28th on the road. I expect Miami to be able to put up points.
Considering Denver's continued offensive competence and lacking defensive competence without Jokic, I'd play the Over here. If the elite big man suits up the Over is still the better play.
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