Rutgers at Purdue odds, picks and prediction
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-4 overall, 1-4 Big Ten) head to Ross-Ade Stadium Saturday to play the Purdue Boilermakers (2-2, 2-2) at 4 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Rutgers-Purdue college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Rutgers at Purdue: Betting odds, spread and lines
- Money line : Rutgers +320 (bet $100 to win $320) | Purdue -417 (bet $417 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS : Rutgers +11 (-110) | Purdue -11 (-110)
- Over/Under : 60.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Rutgers at Purdue: Three things to know
- Rutgers took a rough triple-overtime loss at the hands of Michigan 48-42 last week. The Scarlet Knights covered as 11-point home underdogs, but Rutgers did have a 6-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.
- Purdue was absolutely screwed by one of the worst referee calls you'll ever see last week in a 34-31 loss to Minnesota. TE Payne Durham's would-be go-ahead touchdown catch with 52 seconds remaining was negated by a phantom offensive pass interference penalty.
- The Scarlet Knights and Boilermakers have only played once since Rutgers joined the Big Ten in 2014. Rutgers upset Purdue 14-12 and covered as a 9.5-point underdog in October 2017.
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Rutgers at Purdue: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Purdue 37, Rutgers 30
Money line (ML)
I don't see Purdue losing a third straight game against a feisty, but 1-4 Rutgers team. However, no way I am laying more than 4-to-1 for an outright Purdue win in a conference game.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
Purdue is way too one-dimensional for me to lay such a big number. The Boilermakers' offensive imbalance explains why they haven't been covering as favorites (Purdue is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games as a favorite).
The Boilermakers are 123rd in rushing yards per game, plus Football Outsiders grades their offensive line 118th in line yards, 108th in opportunity rate and 123rd in stuff rate. If Purdue can't salt away a game with its ground attack, then that leaves the backdoor cover wide open for Rutgers.
Also, Purdue starting defensive end, and former five-star recruit, George Karlaftis will miss the game after testing positive for COVID. It's a mystery how Purdue will get a successful pass rush as Karlaftis has two of the Boilers' three sacks this season - the Boilermakers rank 125th in sack rate.
Lastly, we can fade the market by taking the Scarlet Knights here. This line opened at Purdue -10.5 and the spread has only moved to the current price even though 84% of the money wagered and 71% of the bets placed is on the Boilermakers, according to Pregame.com. The lack of movement in the spread despite the overwhelming support for Purdue is puzzling.
GIMME RUTGERS +11 (-110) for 1 unit.
Rutgers passing game has been trending in the right direction and Purdue's pass defense has been bad this season. The Boilermakers aren't getting to the quarterback and they are 63rd in opponent's completion percentage and 91st in opponent's passing yards per game.
Purdue WR Rondale Moore, a future NFL receiver, made his 2020 debut last game (15 catches for 116 yards). He joins WR David Bell, who's been fantastic this season and will be playing on Sundays, too.
Furthermore, both team's weak ground games and poor pass defenses mean these teams will be slinging the rock around the field. Take OVER 60.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
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